EIA Weekly NatGas Storage Report 11-Jun-10

EIA Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,543 Bcf as of Friday, June 11, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 87 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 2 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 313 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,230 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 94 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 52 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 129 Bcf above the 5-year average of 790 Bcf after a net injection of 23 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 90 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 12 Bcf. At 2,543 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; NOAA

Natural Gas in the News

Natural Gas Spreads Spark New Amaranth Concern June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Trading patterns in natural-gas futures are fanning speculation of a repeat of the collapse four years ago of U.S. hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC.

The premium for futures expiring in March 2011 over the April 2011 contract surged to 43.3 cents per million British thermal units June 15 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest level since Feb. 19. The spread was 24.8 cents per million Btu as recently as the end of last week, before jumping more than 50 percent on June 14. The rally came even as U.S. inventories rose to their highest level for this time of year since at least 1993, when the government began collecting data.

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EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 11-Jun-10

Stocks mmbbls
Crude: 363.1 (+1.7)
- Cushing: 37.6 (+0.2)
Gasoline: 218.3 (-0.6)
Distillates: 156.6 (+2.7)
Total Products: 19.3 (-0.2)

Imports mmbbls/d
Crude: 9.7 (+0.2)
Products: 2.1 (+0.1)

Supplied mmbbls/d
Gasoline: 9.3 (+0.1)
Distillates: 3.8 (-0.1)
Total Products: 19.3 (-0.2)

Refinery Operations
Gross Inputs mmbbls/d: 15.5 (-0.2)
Percent Utilization: 87.9% (-1.2)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

API Stocks 11-Jun-10

Change mmbbls
Crude: +0.6 (vs. -1.2 fcst)
Gasoline: +1.3 (vs. +0.2 fcst)
Distillates: +2.1 (vs. +1.0 fcst)

NOAA Daily Tropical Weather Outlooks

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather OutlookSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME LIMITED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED ANDTHERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Source: NOAA

EURO FX in the News

Euro’s One-Week High May Be ‘False Friend’: Technical Analysis June 14 (Bloomberg) -- The euro’s gain to a one-week high versus the dollar may be a “false friend” setting the currency up for a drop to $1.1875 if it doesn’t rally further, according to UniCredit SpA.

Its increase from a four-year low of $1.1877 reached June 7 may be a “fragile pullback” if it doesn’t break above $1.2290, a level that provides a test of the rebound’s momentum, UniCredit analysts led by Roberto Mialich in Milan wrote today in a research note.

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Market Review Week Ending 11-Jun-10

S&P 500
CBOE VIX

USDX

EURO

COMEX Gold

COMEX Copper

Energy Summary Week Ending 11-Jun-10

ICE Brent Crude Oil 10-day Candlesticks
ICE Brent Crude Oil 1-year Daily Continuation

NYMEX Crude Oil 10-Day Candlesticks
NYMEX Crude Oil 1-year Daily Continuation

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index

NYMEX Gasoline 10-day Candlesticks

NYMEX Gasoline 1-year Daily Continuation

NYMEX Heating Oil 10-day Candlesticks

NYMEX Heating Oil 1-year Daily Continuation

NYMEX Natural Gas 10-day Candlesticks

NYMEX Natural Gas 1-year Daily Continuation

CFTC Commitment of Traders 8-Jun-10

Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Baker Hughes N.A. Rotary Rig Count 11-Jun-10

Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

IEA Oil Market Report 10-Jun-10

Crude oil prices tumbled $18/bbl in the first three weeks of May amid deepening concerns over Eurozone debt issues, before partially recovering by end-month. By early June, benchmark crudes were trading in a lower range of around $72-73/bbl.

Global oil demand is revised up by 60 kb/d to 86.4 mb/d in 2010 on stronger-than-expected preliminary OECD data, albeit downside risks remain. With 2009 readings largely unchanged, yearly global demand growth in 2010 is now seen at +1.7 mb/d (+2.0%), deriving almost entirely from the non-OECD.

Total oil supply fell by an estimated 575 kb/d to 86.3 mb/d in May, with lower non-OPEC output due to seasonal maintenance. However, 2010 non-OPEC output is revised up by 0.1 mb/d to 52.3 mb/d amid slower expected North Sea decline. This year’s growth of 0.8 mb/d from non-OPEC comes on top of 0.8 mb/d from OPEC NGLs.

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EIA Weekly NatGas Storage Report 4-Jun-10

NYMEX Natural Gas 5-min. Intraday Price Profile

EIA Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,456 Bcf as of Friday, June 4, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 99 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 28 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 310 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,146 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 98 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 53 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 121 Bcf above the 5-year average of 775 Bcf after a net injection of 28 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 91 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 18 Bcf. At 2,456 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; NOAA

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Global economic recession drove energy consumption lower in 2009 – the first decline since 1982
As with the economic contraction, the decline in energy consumption was concentrated in OECD countries and the territory of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Consumption of oil, natural gas and nuclear power declined, while coal consumption was essentially flat; only hydroelectric output and other renewable forms of energy increased in 2009. This data suggests global CO2 emissions from energy use fell for the first time since 1998.

For the year as a whole, prices for all forms of traded energy fell, with the sharpest declines seen for traded natural gas and coal in North America and western Europe - although Asian coal prices fell less sharply in face of strong Chinese import growth. Oil prices declined for the first time since 2001. During 2009 prices for oil and coal in competitive markets hit their low points early in the year, with oil prices recovering first, while spot natural gas prices in North America and western Europe continued to decline well into 2009.

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Source: BP

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report June 2010

World economic growth for this year was revised up to 3.8% from 3.5% last month. The revision was mainly due to Japan, where strong exports to Asia resulted in a better than expected
performance in the first quarter. The country is now forecast to grow 2.7% in 2010, compared to a previous 1.5%. Growth for the Euro-zone was increased slightly to 0.7% from 0.6%, while the US remained unchanged. China growth was left unchanged at 9.5%, while India was increased to 7.3% and Russia to 4.0%. While the global economy seems to be enjoying solid momentum in the first half, concerns about growth in the second half remain due to Euro-zone sovereign debt problem, the ability of China to avoid overheating and the still high unemployment in OECD countries.

World oil demand is expected to grow by 0.95 mb/d in 2010, unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. Recent data indicates that demand growth has been slightly higher than estimated in the first half of the year. However, an expected moderation in the pace of the economic recovery is likely to impact demand growth forecasts for the second half. Total demand growth is still expected to come from non-OECD as growth in the OECD is expected to remain negative. The estimate for 2009 world oil demand growth shows a marginal change from the previous assessment with a contraction of 1.5 mb/d.

Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase in 2010 by 0.64 mb/d over the previous year, following an upward revision of 0.11 mb/d from the last report. The estimate for 2009 non-OPEC supply growth remains unchanged at 0.74 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to average 4.83 mb/d in 2010, an increase of 0.48 mb/d over the previous year. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.26 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 0.14 mb/d over the previous month.

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Source: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook 8-Jun-10

Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Overview.
EIA has lowered its projections for world oil prices slightly for 2010. Uncertainty about economic growth in China and in the Euro zone has continued to weigh on oil markets, and declines in equity markets have led to fears that the economic recovery may not progress as fast as had been hoped. To date, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has publicly made no suggestions that it would adjust its supply targets despite some downward adjustments in oil prices.

Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Consumption.
EIA projects that world oil consumption will grow by 1.5 million bbl/d in 2010 and 1.6 million bbl/d in 2011, about the same as in last month's Outlook. The growth in oil consumption is expected to be largely concentrated in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions.

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Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 4-Jun-10

Stocks mmbbls
Crude: 361.4 (-1.8)
- Cushing: 37.4 (-0.5)
Gasoline: 219.0 (unch)
Distillates: 154.8 (+1.8)
Total Products: 729.0 (+1.4)

Imports mmbbls/d
Crude: 9.5 (+0.1)
Total Products: 2.0 (-0.6)

Supplied mmbbls/d
Gasoline: 9.2 (unch)
Distillates: 3.9 (-0.1)
Total Products: 19.4 (-0.6)

Refinery Operations
Gross Inputs mmbbls/d: 15.7 (+0.3)
Percent Utilization: 89.1 (+1.6)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

API Stocks 4-Jun-10

Change mmbbls
Crude: -4.5 (vs. -0.9 fcst)
Gasoline: +1.5 (vs. +0.1 fcst)
Distillates: +3.0 (vs. +0.6 fcst)

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures advanced Tuesday on support from a weaker dollar, after swerving in and out of negative territory earlier. Crude oil for July delivery added 55 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $71.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The market struggled for direction earlier, fluctuating alongside stocks. "It feels like the market is waiting for something to happen before it does anything," said Peter Beutel, president of trading advisory firm Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, Conn.

"Any bullish impact from the drop in crude-oil inventories was offset by corresponding builds in product stocks, with distillate inventories showing a larger-than-expected 3 [million per barrels] rise from the revised level for the prior period," Tim Evans, an analyst with Citi Futures Perspective, wrote in a note shortly after the API report.

Crude Oil in the News

BP Spill Shows a Profit Buying 2018 Oil, Selling Spot

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- The oil market is signaling that prices have nowhere to go but up as the biggest spill in U.S. history curbs drilling and makes it more expensive to develop new fields.

Crude’s premium for delivery in eight years compared with today’s price rose 86 percent since the BP Plc-leased Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico exploded April 20. Oil for December 2018 is $21 a barrel more than next month, compared with $11 before the disaster. More regulation may add $5 to the contracts in coming years, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

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