World economic growth for this year was revised up to 3.8% from 3.5% last month. The revision was mainly due to Japan, where strong exports to Asia resulted in a better than expected
performance in the first quarter. The country is now forecast to grow 2.7% in 2010, compared to a previous 1.5%. Growth for the Euro-zone was increased slightly to 0.7% from 0.6%, while the US remained unchanged. China growth was left unchanged at 9.5%, while India was increased to 7.3% and Russia to 4.0%. While the global economy seems to be enjoying solid momentum in the first half, concerns about growth in the second half remain due to Euro-zone sovereign debt problem, the ability of China to avoid overheating and the still high unemployment in OECD countries.
World oil demand is expected to grow by 0.95 mb/d in 2010, unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. Recent data indicates that demand growth has been slightly higher than estimated in the first half of the year. However, an expected moderation in the pace of the economic recovery is likely to impact demand growth forecasts for the second half. Total demand growth is still expected to come from non-OECD as growth in the OECD is expected to remain negative. The estimate for 2009 world oil demand growth shows a marginal change from the previous assessment with a contraction of 1.5 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase in 2010 by 0.64 mb/d over the previous year, following an upward revision of 0.11 mb/d from the last report. The estimate for 2009 non-OPEC supply growth remains unchanged at 0.74 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to average 4.83 mb/d in 2010, an increase of 0.48 mb/d over the previous year. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.26 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 0.14 mb/d over the previous month.
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Source: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
performance in the first quarter. The country is now forecast to grow 2.7% in 2010, compared to a previous 1.5%. Growth for the Euro-zone was increased slightly to 0.7% from 0.6%, while the US remained unchanged. China growth was left unchanged at 9.5%, while India was increased to 7.3% and Russia to 4.0%. While the global economy seems to be enjoying solid momentum in the first half, concerns about growth in the second half remain due to Euro-zone sovereign debt problem, the ability of China to avoid overheating and the still high unemployment in OECD countries.
World oil demand is expected to grow by 0.95 mb/d in 2010, unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. Recent data indicates that demand growth has been slightly higher than estimated in the first half of the year. However, an expected moderation in the pace of the economic recovery is likely to impact demand growth forecasts for the second half. Total demand growth is still expected to come from non-OECD as growth in the OECD is expected to remain negative. The estimate for 2009 world oil demand growth shows a marginal change from the previous assessment with a contraction of 1.5 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to increase in 2010 by 0.64 mb/d over the previous year, following an upward revision of 0.11 mb/d from the last report. The estimate for 2009 non-OPEC supply growth remains unchanged at 0.74 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to average 4.83 mb/d in 2010, an increase of 0.48 mb/d over the previous year. In May, OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.26 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 0.14 mb/d over the previous month.
Read more...
Source: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries