EIA Weekly NatGas Storage Report 12-Mar-10

Summary

"Working gas in storage was 1,615 Bcf as of Friday, March 12, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 11 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 40 Bcf less than last year at this time and 73 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,542 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 38 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 19 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 18 Bcf below the 5-year average of 580 Bcf after a net injection of 14 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 53 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 6 Bcf. At 1,615 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range."

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; NOAA

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 12-Mar-10

Stocks mmbbls
Crude: 344.0 (+1.1)
-Cushing: 29.9 (-0.7)
Gasoline: 227.3 (-1.7)
Distillates: 148.1 (-1.5)
Total Products: 694.8 (-3.5)

Supplied mmbbls/d
Gasoline: 8.8 (-0.1)
Distillates: 3.8 (+0.1)
Total Products: 18.8 (-0.8)

Refinery Utilization: 80.55% (-0.18)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

API Stocks 12-Mar-10

mmbbls
Crude: +0.4 (vs. fcst +1.1)
Gasoline: -3.7 (vs. fcst -0.8)
Distillates: -0.8 (vs. fcst -1.1)

NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures pushed higher post-settlement Tuesday after an industry oil inventory report showed crude stockpiles rose less than expected while

gasoline stocks fell much more than forecast.

"A weakened dollar and associated renewed risk appetite drove most of today's oil price advance," Jim Ritterbusch, president at Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note.

Baker Hughes N.A. Rotary Rig Count 12-Mar-10

Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

CBOE VIX Divergence

The profile this week of the VIX suggests there is risk of a reversal lower in the S&P500 - or at least there are traders who perceive the S&P will stall and correct to the downside from ~1150 level, which would represent a double top if market is unable to clear this level.

This week both the S&P500 and the VIX have risen. The normal relationship between these two profiles is inverse, so for both slopes to be correlated is cause for investigation. The (extreme) overbought condition of the S&P lends support to bearish risk implied by the VIX trend this week.

EIA Weekly NatGas Storage Report 5-Mar-10

NYMEX Natural Gas 60-min. Intra-day Price Profile

Summary

"Working gas in storage was 1,626 Bcf as of Friday, March 5, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 111 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 71 Bcf less than last year at this time and 19 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,607 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 3 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 72 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 39 Bcf below the 5-year average of 587 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 32 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 55 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 7 Bcf. At 1,626 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range."

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; NOAA

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 5-Mar-10

NYMEX Crude Oil 60-min. Intra-day Price Profile

Stocks mmbbls
Crude: 343.0 (+1.4)
- Cushing: 30.6 (+0.6)
Gasoline: 229.0 (-3.0)
Distillates: 149.6 (-2.2)
Total Products: 698.3 (-6.7)

Supplied mmbbls/d
Gasoline: 9.0 (+0.1)
Distillates: 3.6 (-0.2)
Total Products: 19.7 (unchg)

Refinery Utilization: 80.73% (-1.14)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

API Stocks 5-Mar-10

mmbbls
Crude: +6.5 (vs. +1.9 fcst)
Gasoline: -3.2 (vs. +0.2 fcst)
Distillates: -2.8 (vs. -0.9)

NEW YORK, March 9 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures were little changed in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after an industry group's report showed domestic crude stocks rose much more than expected last week.

"The API's bigger-than-expected build in crude stocks appears to indicate that the industry group is trying to catch up with the EIA," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago. Last week's data showed the EIA reporting a larger build than what the API data showed, Flynn noted.

S&P500 Technical Analysis

The S&P500 chart above gives perspective to the current price level relative to the bear run from 1554 (Oct/07) to 683 (Mar/09). Over the past three months, the S&P has traded between the .382 fibonacci retracement and just above the .500 fib. The price action of the past three days indicates that the market is working on retesting the recent high at 1150. This level should represent moderate resistance, at a minimum; or more likely, significant resistance given the overbought condition as indicated by the Percent R oscillator. If bulls can clear this level, expect the .618 fib as the next target higher.

A failure to break out and close above 1150 will set up a double top structure, which represents a risk of a reversal/correction, targeting the 1060-1050 level. Worst case bearish target suggests a symetrical follow-through to the downside at ~950, although, the .382 fib should provide reasonable support ahead of any move to 950 region.

Weekly Price Review

NYMEX Crude Oil Daily Continuation
NYMEX Crude Oil Weekly Continuation

For the week ended Mar-5, WTI broke out higher from the pennant/flag trading seen the prior week, which is text book technical follow-through behaviour for the trading pattern set during the last half of Feb. The bull-side of the market was intent on driving prices higher, shrugging off a neutral-to-bearish EIA report on Wed, and then rallying hard on the US jobs report on Fri. The crude oil correlation to equity markets appears well entrenched.

WTI even fought off a stronger dollar early in the week and then exploited it when it weakened late in the week. The USD stalled this week when the EURO found support as the Greek situation appears to have found an equilibrium based on Greek efforts to further control their deficit; German indication of support; a successful issue of Greek bonds this week; and, efforts by the US and the EU to control speculators betting against the Greek bond and EURO markets.

This week's CFTC report implies long speculator activity is a primary driver behind the current bull run. The WTI price is well above the .618 retracement of the 8400-7100 decline. Expect a retest of the 8400 high as the next significant resistance level. A failure to push above 8400 will likely be seen as first opportunity for bears to regain control, it also may be viewed by producers as a good time to step in with hedge programs. The Percent R indicates WTI remains overbought, so the market may be setting up for a reversal near-term.

NYMEX Natural Gas Daily Continuation
NYMEX Natural Gas Weekly Continuation

The NYMEX Henry Hub front contract found little support this week; Mon opened weak, Tue and Wed found support along broad declining support line, however, Thu's EIA report came out with data below expectations and the market sold off remarkably. Shoulder season sentiment is clearly bearish as injection season looms and estimates for production, cooling degree days and hurricane forecasts begin to determine trader sentiment.

Prices may be coming into strong support level defined by the gap opened up back in early Oct-09 at 400. A break below this gap could lead to remarkably lower prices.

CFTC Commitment of Traders 2-Mar-10

Source: U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission

Baker Hughes N.A. Rotary Rig Count 5-Mar-10

Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

FX in the News

U.S. Said to Tell Hedge Funds to Save Euro Records

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. is asking hedge funds not to destroy trading records on euro bets, according to a person with knowledge of the requests, as Europe and the U.S. step up scrutiny of the funds’ role in the Greek debt crisis.

The Department of Justice sent notices to save the records to at least some of the hedge funds whose executives attended a dinner hosted by New York-based research and brokerage firm Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. on Feb. 8, said the person, who declined to be identified because the information is private.

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auMOmxPWuEfA&pos=4

Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

EIA Weekly NatGas Storage Report 26-Feb-10

NYMEX Natural Gas 60-min. Intra-day Price Profile

Summary

"Working gas in storage was 1,737 Bcf as of Friday, February 26, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 116 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 71 Bcf less than last year at this time and 21 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,716 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 9 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 74 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 24 Bcf below the 5-year average of 604 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 27 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 54 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 15 Bcf. At 1,737 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range."

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; NOAA

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 26-Feb-10

NYMEX Crude Oil 60-min. Intra-day Price Profile

Stocks mmbbls
Crude Oil: 341.6 (+4.0)
- Cushing: 30.0 (+0.1)
Gasoline: 231.9 (+0.8)
Distillates: 151.8 (-0.8)
Total Products: 705.0 (-4.4)

Supplied mmbbls/d
Gasoline: 8.9 (-0.2)
Distillates: 3.8 (+0.2)
Total Products: 19.6 (+0.3)

Refinery Utilization: 81.87% (+0.70)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

API Stocks 26-Feb-10

mmbbls
Crude: +2.7 (vs. +1.4 fcst)
Gasoline: +0.9 (vs. +0.6 fcst)
Distillate: -4.1 (vs. -0.9) fcst)

NEW YORK, March 2 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures were little changed in post-settlement trading on Tuesday, after industry data showed a larger-than-expected build in crude inventories and greater-than-forecast drawdown in distillates.

Heating oil futures rose further on the data and gasoline futures firmed, even though the report showed that gasoline stocks rose higher than expected.

The distillates data "comes with a strong caveat as the new API stock total is still 1.9 million barrels higher than last week's DOE tally, so this API result may only be correcting a prior divergence between the two sets of data," said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

Earlier, crude futures settled more than 1 percent higher on a brighter economic outlook and signs of progress in cobbling up financial support for debt-stricken Greece.

Traders said they saw fund and index fund buying fueling the day's dealings. The improved outlook for Greece's debt problems pushed U.S. stocks up for a third straight day.

CFTC in the News

Oil stored at sea could mean bigger problems and prices in future. Feb. 28 (Telegraph) Another day and another demon for the market exorcists at the US commodity regulator. In an attempt to get to grips with rising commodity prices, the authorities have recently been trying to force traders to release more information about over-the-counter (off-exchange) derivatives and impose position limits on basic commodities.

Regulators want to shine a light on the opaque world of oil storage. Scott O'Malia, a commissioner for the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), voiced his suspicions this week about those who profit from oil storage.

Read more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/7338826/Oil-stored-at-sea-could-mean-bigger-problems-and-prices-in-future.html