La Croix Energy Capital | Petroleum Derivative Trading

“Think like a fundamentalist; trade like a chartist.”
Dennis Gartman. Rule #8 - Gartman’s Simple Rules of Trading

Thursday, March 11, 2010

CBOE VIX Divergence

The profile this week of the VIX suggests there is risk of a reversal lower in the S&P500 - or at least there are traders who perceive the S&P will stall and correct to the downside from ~1150 level, which would represent a double top if market is unable to clear this level.

This week both the S&P500 and the VIX have risen. The normal relationship between these two profiles is inverse, so for both slopes to be correlated is cause for investigation. The (extreme) overbought condition of the S&P lends support to bearish risk implied by the VIX trend this week.