Global oil demand is revised down by 190 kb/d on average for 2009 and 2010, equating to 84.8 mb/d (-1.2 mb/d year-on-year) and 86.4 mb/d (+1.6 mb/d) respectively. Revisions stem largely from changes to non-OECD historical baseline data, as slightly higher GDP prognoses from the IMF are counterbalanced by a higher price assumption.
OPEC crude output rose by 40 kb/d in April, to 29.03 mb/d, sustaining a trend of largely stable supply since mid-2009. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2010 is cut by 0.4 mb/d to 28.7 mb/d on lower demand estimates and higher non-OPEC supply. The ‘call’ peaks in 3Q10 at 29.4 mb/d but recedes in 4Q10 on rising non-OPEC supplies.
Non-OPEC oil supply fell to 52.4 mb/d in April, on seasonal output curbs. The 2010 forecast is revised up 0.2 mb/d to 52.3 mb/d on higher expectations for the US, Canada and China. Growth in 2010 of 0.8 mb/d is the strongest since 2004 and matches that for OPEC NGLs. The Deepwater Horizon drilling accident in the US Gulf has led to a major crude spill. Regional production is unaffected but the incident may lead to tighter safety measures and delay further offshore leasing.
OECD industry stocks rose by 7.3 mb to 2 709 mb in March, with divergent trends in crude and products across all OECD regions. Stock cover in days of forward demand rose to 60.5 days by end-March but stood 1.1 days below March 2009 levels. Preliminary April data show a sharp 47.4 mb build in onshore stocks and higher floating storage.
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OPEC crude output rose by 40 kb/d in April, to 29.03 mb/d, sustaining a trend of largely stable supply since mid-2009. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2010 is cut by 0.4 mb/d to 28.7 mb/d on lower demand estimates and higher non-OPEC supply. The ‘call’ peaks in 3Q10 at 29.4 mb/d but recedes in 4Q10 on rising non-OPEC supplies.
Non-OPEC oil supply fell to 52.4 mb/d in April, on seasonal output curbs. The 2010 forecast is revised up 0.2 mb/d to 52.3 mb/d on higher expectations for the US, Canada and China. Growth in 2010 of 0.8 mb/d is the strongest since 2004 and matches that for OPEC NGLs. The Deepwater Horizon drilling accident in the US Gulf has led to a major crude spill. Regional production is unaffected but the incident may lead to tighter safety measures and delay further offshore leasing.
OECD industry stocks rose by 7.3 mb to 2 709 mb in March, with divergent trends in crude and products across all OECD regions. Stock cover in days of forward demand rose to 60.5 days by end-March but stood 1.1 days below March 2009 levels. Preliminary April data show a sharp 47.4 mb build in onshore stocks and higher floating storage.
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Source: International Energy Agency