API Stocks 26-Mar-10

mmbbls
Crude: +0.4 (vs. +2.4 fcst)
Gasoline: -0.9 (vs. -1.5 fcst)
Distillates: -1.0 (vs. -1.6 fcst)

NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures rose slightly in post-settlement trading on Tuesday, after industry data showed a much smaller-than-expected increase in crude stocks last week. Heating oil and gasoline futures edged up, as data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that distillate and gasoline supplies fell, but by less than analysts had forecast.

"The API has reported a slim crude stock build here and it all boils down to imports being down last week," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago.

"People probably thought that last week's report showing a large increase in crude stocks was part of a trend. Well, it now looks like this week's level of imports, if confirmed in tomorrow's EIA data, may show that inflow of crude is normalizing, after several weeks of uncertainty due to bad weather in the Gulf Coast," Flynn added.

Weekly Price Review

CFTC Commitment of Traders 23-Mar-10

Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Baker Hughes N.A. Rotary Rig Count 26-Mar-10

Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

EIA Weekly NatGas Storage Report 19-Mar-10

NYMEX Natural Gas 5-min. Intra-day Price Profile

Summary

"Working gas in storage was 1,626 Bcf as of Friday, March 19, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 11 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 28 Bcf less than last year at this time and 121 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,505 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 64 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 10 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region equaled the 5-year average of 581 Bcf after a net injection of 19 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 57 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 2 Bcf. At 1,626 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range."

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; NOAA

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 19-Mar-10

S&P 500

NYMEX Crude Oil 5-min. Intra-day Price Profile

Stocks mmbbls
Crude: 351.3 (+7.2)
- Cushing: 30.5 (+0.5)
Gasoline: 224.6 (-2.7)
Distillates: 145.7 (-2.4)
Total Products: 687.9 (-6.9)

Supplied mmbbls/d
Gasoline: 9.1 (+0.2)
Distillates: 3.8 (+0.1)
Total Products: 19.3 (+0.5)

Refinery Utilization: 81.11% (+0.56)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

API Stocks 19-Mar-10

mmbbls
Crude: +7.5 (vs. +1.5 fcst)
Gasoline: -0.1 (vs. -1.3 fcst)
Distillates: -2.5 (vs. -1.0 fcst)

NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell on Wednesday as the euro stayed under pressure against the strengthening dollar and after industry oil inventory data showed a large build in crude oil stocks.

"A test of the downside of (the $80-$82 range) will likely be seen today given the double whammy of a strong dollar and yesterday's bearish API guidance," Jim Ritterbusch, president
at Ritterbusch & Associates, said in Wednesday note.

Weekly Price Review

USDX

S&P 500

NYMEX Crude Oil Daily Continuation
NYMEX Crude Oil Weekly Continuation

NYMEX Natural Gas Daily Continuation

NYMEX Natural Gas Weekly Continuation

CFTC Commitment of Traders 16-Mar-10

Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Baker Hughes N.A. Rotary Rig Count 19-Mar-10

Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

EIA Weekly NatGas Storage Report 12-Mar-10

Summary

"Working gas in storage was 1,615 Bcf as of Friday, March 12, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 11 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 40 Bcf less than last year at this time and 73 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,542 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 38 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 19 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 18 Bcf below the 5-year average of 580 Bcf after a net injection of 14 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 53 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 6 Bcf. At 1,615 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range."

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; NOAA

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 12-Mar-10

Stocks mmbbls
Crude: 344.0 (+1.1)
-Cushing: 29.9 (-0.7)
Gasoline: 227.3 (-1.7)
Distillates: 148.1 (-1.5)
Total Products: 694.8 (-3.5)

Supplied mmbbls/d
Gasoline: 8.8 (-0.1)
Distillates: 3.8 (+0.1)
Total Products: 18.8 (-0.8)

Refinery Utilization: 80.55% (-0.18)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

API Stocks 12-Mar-10

mmbbls
Crude: +0.4 (vs. fcst +1.1)
Gasoline: -3.7 (vs. fcst -0.8)
Distillates: -0.8 (vs. fcst -1.1)

NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures pushed higher post-settlement Tuesday after an industry oil inventory report showed crude stockpiles rose less than expected while

gasoline stocks fell much more than forecast.

"A weakened dollar and associated renewed risk appetite drove most of today's oil price advance," Jim Ritterbusch, president at Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note.

Baker Hughes N.A. Rotary Rig Count 12-Mar-10

Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

CBOE VIX Divergence

The profile this week of the VIX suggests there is risk of a reversal lower in the S&P500 - or at least there are traders who perceive the S&P will stall and correct to the downside from ~1150 level, which would represent a double top if market is unable to clear this level.

This week both the S&P500 and the VIX have risen. The normal relationship between these two profiles is inverse, so for both slopes to be correlated is cause for investigation. The (extreme) overbought condition of the S&P lends support to bearish risk implied by the VIX trend this week.

EIA Weekly NatGas Storage Report 5-Mar-10

NYMEX Natural Gas 60-min. Intra-day Price Profile

Summary

"Working gas in storage was 1,626 Bcf as of Friday, March 5, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 111 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 71 Bcf less than last year at this time and 19 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,607 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 3 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 72 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 39 Bcf below the 5-year average of 587 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 32 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 55 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 7 Bcf. At 1,626 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range."

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; NOAA