La Croix Energy Capital | Petroleum Derivative Trading

“Think like a fundamentalist; trade like a chartist.”
Dennis Gartman. Rule #8 - Gartman’s Simple Rules of Trading

Thursday, February 25, 2010

USDX and S&P500 Technical Analysis

USDX
S&P500

A look at the fibonacci retracement levels on the USDX gives a view on where the USD may be headed near-term. The 50 SMA is now trading well above the 200 SMA, implying that the reversal is well supported. The fib .236 of the Mar/09 - Dec/09 decline represented first resistance level, after which the .382 saw congested choppy trade. Having cleared this consolidation, the USDX is now trading at horizontal resistance associated with Jun/Jul of last year. A break of this level could see USDX rise to the .500 fib at ~8200, followed by ~8400 which represents the .618 fib.

The S&P500 traded lower after hitting the 50 SMA, seemingly respecting the Old-Support-Becomes-New-Resistance rule. Although the Percent R has rolled over, there is support around the -60 region suggesting there may be a retest of the 50 SMA resistance near-term. On the bearish side, the 200 SMA could represent the downside risk level.