Slower demand in the coming quarters
Source: OPEC
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"The global recovery is proceeding apace, led by manufacturing, but the strength of the upturn in 2010 is still uncertain and regionally uneven. Stronger growth is expected in non-OECD in the range of 5-6%, spearheaded by Chinese growth of around 9%, while OECD is not likely to exceed the 2% mark. Indeed, according to our latest forecast, real GDP in the US in 2010 will only be 0.4% above the pre-crisis level, in sharp contrast to a 29% increase in China. Moreover, in the major OECD countries, the recovery is far from self-sustaining and remains largely dependent on continued government support. Moreover, uncertainties related to the timing and coordination of exit strategies and the ongoing debate on regulatory financial reform may add a further layer of risk to the other challenges faced by advanced economies. The rapid deterioration in government finances is a major constraint on maintaining the much-needed fiscal support to labour markets and other sectors of the economy in many OECD countries. Within the Euro-zone, highly indebted members have already led to a hike in credit default premia and damaged the credibility of the single currency, causing it to lose ground against the dollar. In contrast, brisk growth in emerging countries is creating early signs of overheating, implying a faster exit from expansionary policies."
Read more: http://www.opec.org/home/Monthly%20Oil%20Market%20Reports/2010/pdf/MR022010.pdfSource: OPEC