Global Petroleum Overview."As 2009 draws to a close and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) prepares to meet again at the end of the month, it faces a global oil market that has firmed up in response to production cuts that began to take effect in January 2009. Although OPEC compliance with the cuts has weakened and global oil inventories remain very high by historical standards, WTI oil prices averaged $78 per barrel in November, continuing their generally upward trend since February. Expectations of a continued global economic turnaround have buttressed oil markets, and this Outlook assumes world oil-consumption-weighted real GDP grows by 2.6 percent in 2010, following a decline of 0.7 percent in 2009. EIA's expectation is that OPEC crude oil output in 2010 will hold at roughly fourth-quarter 2009 levels of under 30 million barrels per day."
HIGHLIGHTS"Forecast global oil demand is virtually unchanged for 2009 at 84.9 mb/d but is revised up by 130 kb/d to 86.3 mb/d in 2010. Yearly growth (‐1.4 mb/d and +1.5 mb/d, respectively) remains driven by non‐OECD countries, but OECD prospects have slightly improved.
Oil Market Highlights
"The year 2009 was one of the worst years for world oil demand. Consumption has recovered in the fourth quarter as a result of an improvement in economic activities worldwide, however, the forecast for global oil demand still shows a contraction of 1.4 mb/d in 2009, unchanged from the previous report. Following two years of sharp declines, world oil demand is expected to return to growth in 2010, with an increase of 0.8 mb/d following an upward revision of around 70 tb/d from the last assessment. Non-OECD countries will account for all of the increase. Downward risk factors that may put pressure on next year’s oil demand include the pace of the economic recovery in the OECD, especially in the US.
Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 0.5 mb/d in 2009 following an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment. The main contributors to the revision are the USA, Canada, Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. In 2010, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 0.3 mb/d over the current year, the bulk of which comes from Brazil, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Colombia, and the USA. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to add 0.5 mb/d in 2010 following an increase of 0.4 mb/d in 2009. In November, OPEC crude production averaged 29.1 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 47 tb/d over the previous month.
The demand for OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated to average 28.6 mb/d, following a downward revision of 70 tb/d from the previous assessment to show a decline of 2.3 mb/d from last year. In 2010, demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.6 mb/d, an upward revision of around 100 tb/d from the previous month and representing a slight increase of 30 tb/d." Source: OPEC