Stocks mmbbls.
Crude: 327.5 (-4.8); Cushing: 34.7 (+0.6)
Gasoline: 216.3 (-0.9)
Distillate: 161.3 (-3.0)
Total Crude + Products (ex SPR): 1,059.4 (-14.1)
Production mmbbls/d.
Refinery Gross Inputs: 14.2 (0.0)
Operating Percent: 80.04 (+0.09)
Gasoline: 9.0 (-0.1)
Distillate: 3.8 (+0.1)
Imports mmbbls/d
Crude: 7.7 (-0.1)
Gasoline 0.8 (-0.1)
Distillate: 0.3 (+0.1)
Total Net Crude + Products: 8.2 (-0.3)
Demand mmbbls/d.
Gasoline: 9.0 (+0.1)
Distillate: 4.0 (+0.2)
Total Products Supplied: 19.4 (-0.2)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
A very bullish EIA report this AM with crude, gasoline and distillates inventory levels all declining significantly more than forecasted. API stock data released late Tuesday were more in line with actual EIA data than industry survey expectations.
Headline summary of data shows that relatively higher demand vs. flat production and lower imports drove the remarkably lower overall stocks. The crude oil stock value is interesting - crude production was flat vs. prior week, refinery inputs were also flat, and imports were down only marginally, so the question is: what drove the 4.8mmbbl decline?
If there is a bearish component to the data it is the rise in crude stocks at Cushing, which is approaching the record level set back in Q1 of this year. Interestingly, the WTI front-second spread is relatively narrow at ~$0.50, likely a result of the Jan10 contract rolling off the board earlier this week. Given the high stock level at Cushing, there is a risk that the contango at the front of the curve will widen significantly from current indication.
Price action on crude and products responded higher this AM: first, at the beginning of the open-cry session in response to the API data, and then strongly with the release of the EIA data. Product pricing across the first six months of the curve are leading the way higher, with crude following.
Equity markets are marginally higher this AM, while the USDX is lower. Unless petroleum markets are able to lead the overall markets higher, the S&P500 price action this AM is not supportive of the petroleum complex. That being said, technically there is room for crude prices to trade higher on near-term basis, given that the front month has broken above resistance at ~$75.
Crude: 327.5 (-4.8); Cushing: 34.7 (+0.6)
Gasoline: 216.3 (-0.9)
Distillate: 161.3 (-3.0)
Total Crude + Products (ex SPR): 1,059.4 (-14.1)
Production mmbbls/d.
Refinery Gross Inputs: 14.2 (0.0)
Operating Percent: 80.04 (+0.09)
Gasoline: 9.0 (-0.1)
Distillate: 3.8 (+0.1)
Imports mmbbls/d
Crude: 7.7 (-0.1)
Gasoline 0.8 (-0.1)
Distillate: 0.3 (+0.1)
Total Net Crude + Products: 8.2 (-0.3)
Demand mmbbls/d.
Gasoline: 9.0 (+0.1)
Distillate: 4.0 (+0.2)
Total Products Supplied: 19.4 (-0.2)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
A very bullish EIA report this AM with crude, gasoline and distillates inventory levels all declining significantly more than forecasted. API stock data released late Tuesday were more in line with actual EIA data than industry survey expectations.
Headline summary of data shows that relatively higher demand vs. flat production and lower imports drove the remarkably lower overall stocks. The crude oil stock value is interesting - crude production was flat vs. prior week, refinery inputs were also flat, and imports were down only marginally, so the question is: what drove the 4.8mmbbl decline?
If there is a bearish component to the data it is the rise in crude stocks at Cushing, which is approaching the record level set back in Q1 of this year. Interestingly, the WTI front-second spread is relatively narrow at ~$0.50, likely a result of the Jan10 contract rolling off the board earlier this week. Given the high stock level at Cushing, there is a risk that the contango at the front of the curve will widen significantly from current indication.
Price action on crude and products responded higher this AM: first, at the beginning of the open-cry session in response to the API data, and then strongly with the release of the EIA data. Product pricing across the first six months of the curve are leading the way higher, with crude following.
Equity markets are marginally higher this AM, while the USDX is lower. Unless petroleum markets are able to lead the overall markets higher, the S&P500 price action this AM is not supportive of the petroleum complex. That being said, technically there is room for crude prices to trade higher on near-term basis, given that the front month has broken above resistance at ~$75.