La Croix Energy Capital | Petroleum Derivative Trading

“Think like a fundamentalist; trade like a chartist.”
Dennis Gartman. Rule #8 - Gartman’s Simple Rules of Trading

Thursday, December 24, 2009

EIA Weekly NatGas Storage Report 18-Dec-09

Working Gas in Underground Storage, Lower 48 (Bcf).

East:
1,869 (-99 vs. prior wk)
+9.8% vs. prior yr; +9.5% vs. 5yr avg
West:
464 (-14 vs. prior wk)
+8.7% vs. prior yr; +14.9% vs. 5yr avg
Producing:
1,067 (-53 vs. prior wk)
+17.0% vs. prior yr; +19.5% vs. 5yr avg
Total:
3,400 (-166 vs. prior wk)
+11.8% vs. prior yr; +13.1% vs. 5yr avg

Summary
"Working gas in storage was 3,400 Bcf as of Friday, December 18, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 166 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 359 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 395 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,005 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 162 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 99 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 174 Bcf above the 5-year average of 893 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 53 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 60 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 14 Bcf. At 3,400 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range."
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The NYMEX Henry Hub front month futures sold off 0.24/mmBtu from $5.92 to 5.68 on the release of the EIA storage numbers this AM, as the actual draw on stocks was lower than market expectations of a low-to-mid 170s draw. There was a weak bounce higher from 5.68, but the market then traded lower for the rest of the trading day to close at 5.643, -0.178 from Wed's close. Currently, ~$5.92 represents strong resistance, capping prices five out of the last six trading sessions.

According to the latest NOAA 8 to 14 Day Outlook, weather in the West US will be above normal; normal in the Central regions; and below average in the East.