La Croix Energy Capital | Petroleum Derivative Trading

“Think like a fundamentalist; trade like a chartist.”
Dennis Gartman. Rule #8 - Gartman’s Simple Rules of Trading

Friday, April 30, 2010

Chart of the Day

Goldman Sachs Grp (GS - NYSE)
WSJ Number of the Week: $132 Billion of Lost Synthetic Mortgage Bets
May 1 (The Wall Street Journal) -- As the Securities and Exchange Commission and Goldman Sachs head toward their day in court, it’s high time to take a look at how deals like the one at the center of the case — a synthetic mezzanine ABS CDO called Abacus 2007-AC1 — helped turn the U.S. housing bust into a global economic disaster.

The names of the deals serve only to obscure their true nature, so we’ll just call them a betting game. This game allowed investors — including banks and insurance companies such as UBS, Merrill Lynch, AIG and Germany’s IKB — to make huge side bets on the performance of subprime borrowers, dramatically increasing the amount of money that would have to change hands if things went wrong.

Market Review Week Ending 30-Apr-10

S&P 500
CBOE VIX
USDX
EURO
CAD
NYMEX Crude Oil Daily Continuation
NYMEX Crude Oil Weekly Continuation
NYMEX Natural Gas Daily Continuation
NYMEX Natural Gas Weekly Continuation

CFTC Commitment of Traders 27-Apr-10

Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Baker Hughes N.A. Rotary Rig Count 30-Apr-10

Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

EIA Natural Gas Monthly

February production increased 1.6 percent over January (1.0 Bcf/d) in the lower 48 States, with the largest increase seen in Texas with roughly a 0.35 Bcf/d (1.7 percent) increase. Louisiana displayed the largest percentage increase at 5.7 percent or about 0.3 Bcf/d. Continuing development of the Haynesville shale supported the Louisiana increase.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Thursday, April 29, 2010

EIA Weekly NatGas Storage Report 23-Apr-10

NYMEX Natural Gas 5-min. Intra-day Price Profile
EIA Summary
"Working gas in storage was 1,912 Bcf as of Friday, April 23, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 83 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 101 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 303 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,609 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 146 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 38 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 83 Bcf above the 5-year average of 644 Bcf after a net injection of 31 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 74 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 14 Bcf. At 1,912 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range."

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; NOAA

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 23-Apr-10

NYMEX Crude Oil 60-min. Intra-day Price Profile
Stocks mmbbls
Crude: 357.8 (+2.0)
- Cushing: 34.6 (+0.5)
Gasoline: 223.7 (-1.2)
Distillates: 151.8 (+2.9)
Total Products: 715.1 (+10.9)

Supplied mmbbls/d
Gasoline: 9.3 (+0.1)
Distillates: 3.6 (+0.1)
Total Products: 18.4 (-0.1)

Refinery Operations
Percent Utilization: 88.95 (+3.02)
Gross Inputs mmbbls/d: 15.6 (+0.5)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

API Stocks 23-Apr-10

Change mmbbls
Crude: +5.3 (vs. +1.0 fcst)
Gasoline: -0.7 (vs. +0.8 fcst)
Distillates: -1.4 (vs. -1.4 fcst)

April 27 (Reuters) -- API "reported a larger than expected 5.3 mmbls build in US commercial crude stocks for the week ended April 23, as a lower refinery operating rate offset a decline in oil imports," said Tim Evans of Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

Evans said that since the API reported total stockpile levels 4.5 million barrels above the past week's Energy Information Administration tally, it may indicate EIA will report a larger than expected rise on Wednesday.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Oil Pricing in the News

Oil Contango Soars as Oklahoma Brims With CrudeApril 26 (Bloomberg) -- Oil storage costs are soaring to the highest level in four months as tanks in Oklahoma brim with near-record crude inventories.

Crude for delivery in June cost $1.95 a barrel less than for July on April 21, the biggest gap since Dec. 15 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The discount, or contango, which mirrors the expense of stockpiling, emerged after inventories jumped 5.8 percent in the week ended April 16 to 34.1 million barrels in Cushing, Oklahoma, where traders make deliveries for futures contracts, government data show.

Inventories are near the record 35.7 million barrels on Jan. 1 because of rising Canadian imports and a seasonal decline in demand as refineries shut for maintenance. Supplies are so plentiful that West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, oil costs less than benchmark Brent crude in Europe, a lower quality crude. Brent cost more than WTI three times in the past year.

Read more...

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Market Review Week Ending 23-Apr-10

S&P500
CBOE VIX
USDX
EURO
CAD
NYMEX Crude Oil Daily Continuation
NYMEX Crude Oil Weekly Continuation

NYMEX Natural Gas Daily Continuation
NYMEX Natural Gas Weekly Continuation

Friday, April 23, 2010

CFTC Commitment of Traders 20-Apr-10

Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission